On 23 June, the Haze Outlook 2020, written by the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) and Segi Enam Advisors, was released to the public. Essentially a risk assessment report on the transboundary haze incident within the ASEAN region for 2020, the report operated on a weather-peat-people framework and found that there is moderate risk of a severe transboundary haze incident this year.
With specific reference to weather, we gathered and analysed recent forecasts, meteorological indicators, and other weather-related risk factors for the year 2020. Overall, weather conditions for now appear favourable, particularly with regard to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenons. While NOAA’s March outlook expects an exceptionally warm year, the indicators for ENSO and IOD are relatively neutral.
Climate events indicate that dryer-warmer conditions are muted for the time being.
Over in Indonesia, the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) forecasts that 30% of regions entering the dry season in the next three months after May will be experiencing drier-than-usual weather conditions, including areas in North Sumatra, Riau, and West Kalimantan. The agency also warned of the possibility of an early dry season for Bali, Nusa Tenggara, West Jawa, and Central Jawa. Similarly, several plantation corporations operating in Indonesia have also voiced concerns about the dryness and high temperature expectations throughout the region.