News & Views

In the media: China Daily on Market Diversification in Southeast Asia

Is the Southeast Asian Market cushioned from harsh US tariffs through diversification?

Editor’s Note: On May 28, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that the global tariffs imposed by Trump are illegal. However, many of the sector-specific tariffs like those on Southeast Asian agricultural exports remain in effect even as trade negotiations continue in the on-off Trump Tariff saga.

Segi Enam Advisors principal Khor Yu Leng was cited by China Daily on 5 May 2025 for her views on market diversification among ASEAN countries, following the impact of high US tariffs on the Southeast Asian market.

On 2 April, the US imposed a baseline 10% tariff on all its trading partners, along with additional, country-specific tariffs. Among those hit hard were countries in Southeast Asia. For example, Indonesia, the world’s biggest coffee exporter, was hit with a 32% tariff, even though the US is one of its key markets. Thailand the second largest was hit with a 32% while Cambodia 49%. Meanwhile, Vietnam, which is considered more vulnerable due to its strong reliance on the US and the likelihood of future tariffs, was slapped with a 46% tariff.

In response, countries in the ASEAN region continue the negotiations with the US, but they’re also actively working to protect their respective economies by diversifying their export markets and improving export competitiveness.

Planters and traders in Indonesia, for instance, remain optimistic as they turn to other key markets like Singapore, South Korea, and the Middle East. Governments in the region are also stepping up support. In Malaysia, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announced a 1 billion ringgit (about $235 million) relief fund to help small and medium-sized businesses affected by the tariffs. Meanwhile, Thailand is hosting a global rice summit from May 25 to 27, led by its Commerce Ministry. The goal is to promote Thai rice exports and secure purchase orders worth over 2 billion baht (around $61 million).

Yu Leng’s comments below touched on the diversification of markets among ASEAN countries following the impact of the US tariffs.

Khor Yu Leng, director of Singapore-based consultancy Segi Enam Advisors noted that the US tariffs are of great concern in ASEAN countries as exporters have a similar range of agricultural products, including rice, palm oil, and fruits. She said Vietnam and Thailand seem more vulnerable, with relatively higher US tariffs and heavier dependence on niche markets and products, including jasmine rice.

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Social media scan on palm oil @ 16 Oct 2024

Here’s a scan of some news and issues that have caught the attention of palm oil watchers, in the last three weeks! We mostly pick up on things on Twitter/X. Come here for more, https://x.com/khorreports

EUDR. A hot topic amongst regulators and market players, we have argued it would be a two year muddle-through. Maybe for three years, with the one year additional time? Alerts on X (1) and (2). There is positive feedback about enhanced regulations and traceability in the palm and rubber industries, including in Ivory Coast, Malaysia, and Thailand. The regulatory upgrades are being underestimated, while costs may be overestimated. Aida Greenbury praises how cocoa farmers in Ghana are preparing for the EU's Deforestation-Free Due Diligence regulations.

On prices and trade. Susan Stroud is a notable expert on soy from North America. A 25-year palm oil price chart from Malaysia's BMD is mentioned, and Indian buyers are canceling palm oil shipments due to a sharp duty hike and rising Malaysian prices. Alerts on X (1), (2), (3).

Malaysia’s palm oil consumption has dropped significantly. Diesel consumption in Malaysia is down due to subsidy reforms, but oleochemical exports may gain from Indonesia's export duty adjustments.

News on Indonesia. New data shows an increase in palm oil deforestation in Indonesia in 2022, with no data yet for 2023. The government's Food Estates program faced challenges, particularly in peat areas, due to difficult terrain and market issues. Indonesia's Food Estates project raises concerns about food inflation, with climate change, a weak rupiah, and high imported food prices posing potential risks.

News from India. India's palm oil yields are around 12 tonnes/hectare, lower than major producers like Malaysia and Indonesia. India's vegetable oil imports dropped 30% in September due to lower demand and high prices, following higher imports in July-August. 

Palm oil is used in the energy sector and in renewables. Gas oil and Brent crude are key factors for palm oil market watchers. An oil asset map from @SPGCI provides detailed insights into the Middle East. Energy, beyond food and personal care, is crucial for the palm oil sector. The rapid growth of renewables is important. By 2030, solar PV and wind are expected to double their share to 30% of the global power mix, meeting around half of global electricity demand. (Palm oil biomass should count in the dark green “other renewables” segment.) But there’s always a risk of being called out on greenwashing… The UK advertising watchdog ruled Virgin Atlantic’s “100% sustainable aviation fuel” ad misleading and instructed them to clarify the environmental impact in future ads (note: SAF is a technical term and it still contains fossil fuels).