Outlook on forest fires, market indicators, farmers, and EU trade compliance

The Shift from Low to Medium Haze Risk in 2025 (Transboundary Haze in Sumatra)

The Haze Outlook 2025 has raised the regional risk level from green (low risk) to amber (medium risk), citing elevated agricultural prices, an uptick in deforestation, and economic and policy shifts driven by pressure to boost agricultural output for food security as attributes to this change.

Key points to note from the report:

• While deforestation declined between 2017 and 2022, it has increased again from 2023 into 2024, particularly in Sumatran provinces near Singapore and Peninsular Malaysia, where fire activity surged in July 2025.

• Despite forecasts of a shorter dry season, hotspots and smoke haze in parts of Sumatra in mid-July have already affected air quality in parts of Peninsular Malaysia, indicating that fire risk remains elevated even under average weather conditions.

With climate trends pointing to another unusually dry season between 2027 and 2030, and structural drivers like land clearing and commodity demand continuing to fuel haze episodes, the report recommends prioritizing sustainability measures “to avoid creating more fire-prone conditions.”

The surging of commodity prices with deforestation on the uptick (Most especially, palm oil prices surpassing soybean)

Linked to these structural pressures, the Outlook notes that agricultural commodity prices, especially for palm oil, have surged due to supply failing to keep pace with rising global demand.

According to the report, palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia, typically the world’s cheapest vegetable oil, has traded above soybean oil prices at key destinations for nine consecutive months, an unprecedented trend. This price surge is significant because historical spikes in commodity prices have often preceded increased deforestation in subsequent years. 

Although the rate of primary forest loss between 2015 and 2019 remained largely flat or declined despite fluctuations in commodity prices, the report notes that the current cycle may differ: “estimates show some uptick in deforestation in Indonesia from 2023–2024.”

Will EUDR be further delayed to 2028? How will smallholders cope with these regulations

The report also highlights the approaching enforcement of the European Union’s Regulation on Deforestation-free Products (EUDR), scheduled to take effect for large companies on 30 December 2025. The regulation targets seven commodities, palm oil, soy, wood, cocoa, coffee, cattle, and natural rubber, and requires proof that imports are not linked to deforestation after 31 December 2020.

According to the report, key developments related to the EUDR include:

• The regulation imposes strict reporting requirements, which critics argue may exclude smallholder farmers unable to meet compliance standards.

• In response, the EU has simplified some administrative rules, allowing annual submissions and reuse of due diligence statements for reimported goods, cutting estimated compliance costs by 30%.

• Indonesia and Malaysia have developed national digital platforms to provide legality and traceability data, while respecting data protection laws. These systems aim to support smallholders and enable international buyers to file EUDR-compliant submissions through national dashboards.

• Indonesia has urged the EU to postpone full implementation until 2028 to allow more time for preparation and alignment across all stakeholders.

The report suggests that while the EUDR aims to curb deforestation linked to commodity trade, its real-world impact will depend on how effectively origin countries and the EU implement and enforce these measures, especially regarding smallholder inclusion.

The Annual Haze Outlook Report can be found here.

Reach us at khorreports[at]gmail.com

Improving Malaysia’s Ecological Fiscal Transfers: Key Takeaways from Macaranga Media's Webinar

On 23 April 2024, Samantha Ho (Eco Business), Surin Suksuwan and Teckwyn Lim, moderated by Yao-Hua Law of Macaranga Media, gathered to discuss Malaysia’s Ecological Fiscal Transfer (EFT) policy, a federal initiative aimed at incentivizing state governments to conserve forests and protected areas. The webinar shed light on the program’s challenges, transparency gaps, and potential improvements. Here were the key takeaways:
1. Limited Funds Disbursed, Lack of Transparency

Since its introduction in 2019, the federal government has allocated RM800 million under the EFT scheme. However:

• Less than 5% of the funds have been disbursed.

• In some years, the amounts given to state governments were lower than publicly stated.

• The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability (NRES) did not disburse funds in certain years, raising questions about oversight.

While some projects—such as Tasik Chini’s conservation and an artificial reef in Kelantan—were highlighted, most states provided little detail on how funds were used. Johor was the most transparent but only shared data from 2021, leaving earlier allocations unaccounted for.

2. Why Does the Federal Government Need States’ Cooperation?

• States control land, while the federal government has international commitments (e.g., protecting 20% of Malaysia’s land).

• Without state cooperation, federal conservation goals (such as maintaining 50% forest cover) may fail—especially as states like Sarawak continue converting forests for agriculture.

• Currently, there is no penalty for states that reduce forest cover, and little compensationfor states like Pahang and Sabah, which already maintain high forest coverage.

3. Ambiguity in Definitions and Monitoring

• The federal government retracted a list of protected areas from MyBIS, claiming it was a temporary delay—but five and a half years later, clarity is still lacking.

• Without clear definitions, it’s difficult to determine what qualifies as a protected forest or how much forest cover exists.

• No strict monitoring ensures funds are used for conservation. Some states reportedly spent EFT money on roads and other non-conservation projects. However, some panellists agreed that for EFTs to work, state governments should have freedom to choose as to what they define as constituting ‘conservation’.

4. Should EFTs Be Tied to Conservation Outcomes?

• Teckwyn argued that EFTs should increase protected areas and maintain forest cover, not just fund existing state activities.

• Surin suggested that states failing to protect forests should lose funding, turning EFTs into a performance-based incentive.

• Samantha emphasized transparency—even if funds aren’t spent on conservation, the public deserves to know how they’re used.

5. Rethinking EFTs: Opportunity Cost, Not Just Conservation Funds

• Since federal transfers to states are constitutionally mandated, EFTs could be structured as compensation for lost economic opportunities (e.g., logging or mining bans).

• Surin proposed: “If you have X amount of forests, you get X amount of money.”

• Others questioned whether framing EFTs as “conservation funds” is effective—perhaps they should be seen as payments for ecosystem services.

Conclusion
Malaysia’s EFT policy has the powerful potential to safeguard Malaysia’s natural heritage as well as being a legitimate tool to back up the Malaysian government’s pledge of maintaining 50% forest cover. Notwithstanding, the general consensus was concern over the lack of transparency at how public funds were being spent.

Part 1 of Macaranga Media’s coverage of EFTs can be found here. Part 2 may be found here.
MyBIS’ list of protected areas may be found here.

Reach us at khorreports[at]gmail.com

Catch up on interviews with BFM

By Claudia Nyon, Research Associate, research@segi-enam.com 

Here’s a belated update on two BFM interviews back in August.

Yu Leng was on BFM’s Morning Run on 26 August 2024 to provide her insights on the increase of rubber prices against the impending implementation of the European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). Yu Leng also considered the present challenges of smallholder producers of palm oil and rubber. The full podcast may be found here. 

Key points included: 

• Malaysia’s rubber yield may sound low but specialists think that trees are overcounted. Thailand has faced challenging wet weather conditions and output is down but on the other hand Malaysia’s output is up. Malaysia’s ranking in global production is below.

• Commodities are handled by different government agencies or statutory boards in Malaysia. There is one for palm oil, rubber, pepper and so forth. (Agronomists seem to complain about these as “silos”). Another complexity in rubber is that different zones have different farmer income models, notably for profit sharing or share cropping. 

• Rubber is largely produced in the northern states, where palm oil has not taken over these dryer regions. Smallholder experts think that (the true) rubber farmers needing help are individuals in remote areas. But domestically, there has been an understandable push for group farming (with hired/migrant labour) near towns. Perhaps a majority of rubber is produced under profit sharing, and this may need more consideration in current policy. 

A few extra points that didn’t make it, owing to time constraints:

• A near geographical monopoly concept exists and persists in Malaysian regulations. The ideal is a farmer having multiple mills to sell for then will there be better prices for a standard product. But mills have a clear incentive to partner with their smallholders for product quality and international ESG standards. 

• A lot can be gained from having information on the location of ultra low-yielding oil palms (“dura contamination” in industry parlance, where yields are -56% of normal yield). The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) has invested a lot in detecting via genomic testing. Seeds can be verified for normal yield. There is a marginal cost increase for a major gain in production. One in eight oil palms in Malaysia are ultra low-yield, i.e., financially impaired. This is pretty surprising. 

• However, the industry needs to reconsider how they can expand these good practices from planting material all the way to harvesting and field logistics, and fairer prices. 

Yu Leng was also invited to give her take on Malaysia’s latest pledge to halt new palm oil plantations in forested areas on BFM’s Top 5 at 5, on 19 August 2024. Deforestation regulations such as the EUDR were raised and how its shaking up global commodity supply chains with origins competing against each other to sell high value add products, however limiting land might cause liberal state development policies to clash against federal powers over exporting and licensing via the MPOB. The full podcast may be found here. 

Editor’s Note: this clash between state and federal powers over the ban on new palm oil plantations in forested areas has recently materialised in the Kuala Nerus district, Terengganu. As reported by Malaysiakini in September (paywalled), Pure Green Development Sdn Bhd submitted an environmental impact assessment (EIA) to clear a state-owned peat swamp forest to develop a palm oil plantation. Following reports, the Department of Environment rejected Pure Green’s EIA (paywalled) and the Plantation and Commodities Minister, Johari Abdul Ghani, issued a statement (Bahasa Malaysia only) that the government’s bar against new palm oil plantations in forested areas still remains in force and referred to the Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) certification policy.