Indonesia presidential race (updated a)

Indonesia presidential race (various updates):

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30 July 2014: Jokowi goes online for Cabinet by Sita W. Dewi and Yuliasri Perdani, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Headlines | Fri, July 25 2014, 8:36 AM; "... Social media played a major role in his presidential-election victory and now president-elect Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has embraced the same tool to recruit his ministers. At the same time he is easing pressure from those seeking places in the Cabinet and attempting to win over his opponents... Amid rumors and media speculation about his Cabinet choices after he is sworn in as president on Oct. 20, Jokowi and his team have produced an online poll called “People’s Choice for an Alternative Cabinet” published on In the survey, the team is putting forward three different names for each ministerial post in a Cabinet of 34 ministers. The poll also provides an option should respondents wish to propose another name. It is expected citizens will respond enthusiastically to this Indonesian Idol style of recruitment as it will be the first time they have been involved in Cabinet formation....

24 July 2014: I checked with a source who's a Jokowi supporter, who had this to say: "I am holding the jubilation at least until two things happen: i) Golkar crosses over from Prabowo side, giving Jokowi 2/3 majority in parliament thus he cannot be impeached. Currently, the parties backing Prabowo have threatened impeachment on the first few days in parliament* and b) Prabowo finally concedes." *refer to 11 July posting (below), Indonesia’s Parliament in a extraordinary session, amended the constitution. Referred to in the Indonesia media as the "Law on MD3", the next leader of Parliament will be chosen by MPs, rather than awarded to the party winning the most seats i.e. Jokowi's PDI-P....

9 July 6pm note: PDI-P and Megawati declared victory but no concession from Prabowo then.
It seems that big corporate donors sure made a big push Prabowo to win but Jokowi-JK prevailed and their lead grew. For plantations, Prabowo sounded more bullish on upstream and biodiesel topics. Jokowi has warned on special interests and those companies falling short on various issues of governance. But PDI-P is still rather nationalistic and we should expect differences; as seen elsewhere in the world. Our reader SK notes this: Now the question is who will be in the cabinet? Will Jokowi co-opt more competent bureaucrats from Demokrat? We might also wonder how will Jokowi'srelationship with Megawati and daughter-son evolve.

Exit polls: Jokowi-JK win 52.7% vs 47.2%. 9 July 2014 update, 4.15pm. Several polling organisations find for Jokowi-JK victory, 5.5%-age points ahead of the Prabowo team. This is ahead of the 3%-age point narrowing lead just before polling day.

POLLING DAY! 9 July 2014 update, 9am. Thanks to our reader SK, two negatives on Jokowi's campaign - apparent campaign planning and excecution problems in PDI-P and an alleged TNI program... Exit polls in foreign voting show strong support for Jokowi... For those interested in policy directions, UOBKH Research, 8 July on final debate: The final round of the presidential debate was a heated one with Jokowi-Kalla on the attack. Kalla raised the issue of Newmont divestment, graft regarding the people surrounding Prabowo and conditional coalition offered by Prabowo. Jokowi also attacked his rival’s promises and questioned how they would ever realise those plans....
7 July 2014 update: News and view on the 5th and final Presidential Debate on Food Security, Energy, Environmental Issues. Also, interesting to note that Jakarta Globe wonders about a situation of "no clear winner" of the election, worries about TNI (armed forces) role and which are the key swing voting regions.....
4 July 2014 update: Interview #2 Presidential race heats up, foreigners worry? In the last two weeks, I've been in touch with six (6) people who represent large business interests in Indonesia including in palm oil (domestic and international owners) and three (3) Malaysians who work and/or are invested in Indonesia palm oil.  Khor Reports notes on key Indonesia-Malaysia plantation topics.
17 June 2014 - One survey shows  Prabowo-Hatta surpassing Jokowi-Kalla who have been on a narrowing trend. Indonesia surveys were off base when some earlier expected a solid Jokowi-PDIP win in the legislative elections. Sample size was not terribly big for this one and some say that Indonesia voters can change their minds with a large 40% proportion as undecided in other surveys.
I'm also hearing on Indonesia sources that many civil servants are not be terribly keen on Jokowi given his public "shaming" of Jakarta bureaucrats. Thus, they tend to be Prabowo supporters.

9 June's Update 2 is for Jokowi sugar mill update plan.
Khor Reports comment: We've been keeping an eye on this and expected increasing economic nationalism once Jokowi failed to get a large majority in the earlier polls. A plantation expansion moratorium for large companies is in regulations with a 100,000 hectare cap to be implemented but still subject to negotiation on the finer details. One way to lift this ceiling is to be publicly listed in Indonesia - but there is uncertainty as to the public float expected. This situation has not been tested, but we suspect that a significant public float[1] may find favour with Indonesia's economic and financial sector development policies..................

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